Our Fall/Winter Minor League review will consist of three separate series. First we will step through each organization with a look at their Top 20 prospects. During the unveiling of our Top 20 Prospects lists, we'll count down the Top 30 prospects in the Baltimore Orioles system, with a scouting report provided for each player. Once our organizational examinations are completed, we'll round-up our offseason coverage with a cumulative ranking of the organizations, our Top 100 MiL Prospects list and our 1st and 2nd All-Prospect Teams. Kindly note that letter grades assigned to prospects are intended for comparative purposes within the CamdenDepot ranking universe, and are not intended as a means to compare players against other scouting services' rating systems. A "B+" or "C" rating assigned in our pieces is based on our own proprietary rating system and is not intended to be interchangeable with letter grades provided by other services. All listed ages are as of December 31, 2008. For more information on our methodology, pleace visit the About Us page.
The lack of past depth in the Blue Jays's system is made apparent by the large number of 2007 and 2008 draftees on our '09 Top 20. Both Snider and Arencibia look to be fairly safe bets to contribute at the ML level, but much of the talent past there is, developmentally, a ways off. With Snider graduating from prospect status this year, Toronto hopes 2008 first round selection David Cooper can continue to progress at AA and challenge Arencibia for top prospect status next year. One player of interest is Trystan Magnuson, who we've selected as our "bounce back" candidate for the 2009 season. While Magnuson did not make our Top 20 or Next 10 for the Jays, Magnuson is a player Jays fans should keep an eye on in 2009. The 2007 Supplemental First-rounder has tons of room and projectability in his 6-7 / 210 frame, throwing on a hard downward plane. After a rough debut last year at Lansing LoA, Magnuson will look to add consistency to an average slider and "show me" changeup. For now he's still primarily one-pitch act, though his low- to mid-90s fastball is certainly a solid starting point. He'll need to work to repeat his delivery -- a challenge for the big-bodied righty -- and continue to add strength to his frame.
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Notes: Snider is a future middle-of-the-order bat with big raw power that is already translating to the field. His thick build and solid bat speed produce fringe-plus-plus power. An advanced approach and good hand/eye coordination allow him to square-up consistently, and he’s shown an ability to drive the ball to all fields. The only glaring hole on the offensive side of Snider’s game is his pitch-ID. Last year in particular (when called-up to Toronto) he tended to get out in front of offspeed stuff too often, sapping his power. Still, he’s shown an ability to adjust his approach throughout his pro career and we have little doubt this will be addressed in short order. Defensively, his athleticism is solid, making a corner-outfield spot possible despite his thick build. He sets himself up well on his throws and his arm is plenty strong for right field. He should hit for average and power as early as 2009, and should be a fixture in Toronto’s right field for years to come.
2. J.P. Arencibia | Stats | Depot Grade: B+ 6-1 / 215 | Age - 21 | C | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | University of Tennessee Floor: Below-AVG LF | Ceiling: All-Star C | Projection: Above-AVG C
Notes: The former Tennessee Volunteer packs above-average power in a solid catcher’s frame. At the plate he has shown an ability to drive the ball to all fields, squaring-up consistently. Arencibia spent his first full season in pro ball split between HiA Dunedin and AA New Hampshire, displaying impressive power at both stops. The largest hole in Arencibia’s offensive game is his sometimes-too-aggressive approach (only 18 walks in over 500 plate appearances), which was exposed to a degree at New Hampshire. As he progresses, he will need to reign-in his aggressiveness and work himself into better hitter’s counts if he wants to succeed against more advanced pitching. Defensively, Arencibia is comfortable in his transfer and delivers consistent throws to second with a strong and accurate arm. He still fights pitches from time-to-time, and needs to improve his receiving, but the tools are there for him to be a successful backstop at the Major League level. He profiles as a solid defensive catcher with above-average power – the development of his approach will determine whether he’s able to hit for average.
3. David Cooper | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-0 / 175 | Age - 21 | 1B | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | University of California - Berkley Floor: Below-AVG 1B | Ceiling: Above-AVG 1B | Projection: AVG DH
Notes: The 2008 first-round draft pick tore through three levels of A ball in his professional debut, finishing up at HiA Dunedin. While squaring-up consistently and driving the ball at each level, it’s unclear whether Cooper’s swing will play at the upper levels. Despite solid hands and strong wrists, Cooper’s bat speed remains merely average, making it difficult to project plus-power against more advanced pitching despite a clean and fluid swing. AA New Hampshire should be an adequate test in 2009 and should give us more insight into Cooper’s ceiling. Defensively, he’s unimpressive but serviceable at first base.
4. Justin Jackson | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-2 / 175 | Age - 20 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1s) | Asheville HS (NC) Floor: UTL | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS
Notes: Like Cooper, Jackson brings just average bat speed to the plate. His strikezone command is solid, but his pitch-ID is still lacking (leading to a lot of strikeouts in a short pro career). Jackson has a good understanding of how to use the whole field when he does square-up and projects to potential average power. Defensively, he handles shortstop in impressive fashion, ranging well to both sides and showing good footwork on his pivots and both the front- and back-end of the double play.
Notes: Cecil enjoyed great success in his first full season of professional ball at HiA and AA before sputtering a bit in six starts at AAA Syracuse. He boasts a power slider that serves as his primary out pitch. His fastball sits in the upper-80s to low-90s range and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. Cecil has an advanced approach on the mound and a good idea of how to best use his arsenal. He likely needs a more refined offspeed pitch to succeed at the Major League level, and he’ll undoubtedly make this a priority at Syracuse in 2009. After pitching a bit above his stuff in 2008, we’ll watch to see if he can maintain his momentum next season.
Notes: Emaus has a clean, compact stroke and showed a proclivity for squaring-up on the ball at HiA Dunedin. He has an advanced command of the strike-zone and displays solid on-base skills. He could bring average power and hitting up-the-middle, profiling as a solid 2-hitter if all goes well. Defensively, he has fringy range at short but plenty of arm, making third base an option. His footwork is also solid enough for second, which would probably be the best fit long-term.
Notes: Farquhar threw 26+ innings in relief in the NY/Penn league in his first pro season, showcasing solid power stuff out of two different arm slots. He generally comes out of a 3.4 arm slot, where his fastball sits in the low-90s and his curveball (a power downer) generally sits in the upper-70s. He can also drop down to a sidearm delivery which adds plus-life to his fastball while dropping velocity 2-3 mph, generally. He also throws a sweeping slider out of his sidearm slot that sits right around 80 mph. As he improves his command, he could be dominant in relief.
Notes: Already the fourth class of 2007 prospect on our list, Ahrens struggled in his second season. Despite good hands and a quick bat, his aggressive approach yielded mixed results and a lot of strikeouts. While he has shown solid command of the strikezone, he doesn’t yet work the count enough to take advantage of this skill – something that should play well against LoA pitching. Still, he tackled a tough Midwest League at age 19 and generally held his own. He has the potential for plus-hitting and power. He’s an above-average defender at third with a 70-arm.
Notes: Romero pitched with mixed results in 2008 but still has the tool set to reach a mid-rotation ceiling. His fastball is an upper-80s/low-90s offering with good life. He throws a split/changeup and a curveball as offspeed offerings, both in the upper-70s. His change has solid depth and his curve is a traditional 12/6 with good late break. He mixes in a fringe-average slider, as well. Command is the biggest hurdle for Romero, as his stuff isn’t overpowering. With increased pitchability, he could be a solid contributor in the Toronto rotation as early as next year.
Notes: Farina was impressive in 29+ relief innings at LoA Lansing. His arsenal is highlighted by a plus-slider with 2-plane action and mid-80s velocity. He also mixes-in a solid-average downer curveball. He gets solid action on his low-90s fastball. He is able to throw each of his offerings from an almost identical arm slot with very similar arm action. His changeup is still just a “show me” pitch. Lacking the ideal size for a starter, Farina has electric stuff that should play well in the pen. He’ll need to prove his durability as he progresses through the minors.
Notes: Mills has solid average stuff across the board, surviving more on pitchability than anything else. His fastball sits in the upper-80s and flashes some armside run. His best secondary offering is a 12/6 curveball with average break. His changeup is a fringe-average pitch that plays-up down in the zone. When he elevates his pitches, he tends to get into trouble with his less-than-overpowering stuff. As an added benefit, he has some deception in his delivery that seems to cause timing issues with hitters. He projects as a solid back-end starter.
12. Marc Rzepczynski | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-3 / 205 | Age - 23 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2007 (R5) | University of California - Riverside Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Rzepczynski’s strength is his ability to generate a large number of groundballs (GB% of 66.5 in 2008). His primary offering is an upper-80s boring fastball that can touch the low-90s when he’s humming. He pairs it with a solid-average changeup with decent depth and good arm action. His curveball is fringy and serves primarily as a change of pace pitch at this point. Lacking a legit swing-and-miss pitch, Rzepcynski will have to rely on his ability to produce groundballs and maintain a solid BB/SO ratio in order to continue as a starter in the upper-levels. Otherwise, he profiles as a middle-reliever.
Notes: Campbell continued his steady climb through the minors with another season of solid plate discipline and plus-strikezone command. Offensively, there is limited upside in his bat. Still, he can go pole-to-pole and has developed occasional gap-to-gap pop. Defensively, he is solid but unspectacular at second base, lacking the range for shortstop and the offensive profile for third. He figures to be a bottom-third bat on a Major League team with solid on-base skills.
Notes: The 19-year old Venezuelan native is still filling-out his solid third base frame and is very much a work-in-progress. He has a short, compact swing that is quick to the ball and should produce solid-average power, though that has yet to show-up in games. Defensively, Fuenmayor has fringy-hands and looks to be a better fit at first base. For the time being, Toronto will likely keep running him out at third until he gives them a reason not to. 2009 should be an interesting year, as Toronto will be expecting another solid step forward at Short-season Auburn or LoA Lansing.
Notes: After success over the course of a month at HiA Dunedin, Dials was very hittable at AA New Hampshire. His best offering is a mid-90s fastball with plus-sink. He also throws a solid mid-80s slider with average tilt and fringy command. His changeup is only a “show me” pitch. He looked more comfortable and poised in 2008 than he did in 2007 and he did a slightly better job maintaining his mechanics. He’ll likely start ’09 back in AA where he could move quickly with improved command.
Notes: Grabbed in the thirteenth-round of this past Rule 4 Draft, Daly boasts a plus-fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s with impressive life. In fact, sometimes the life on his fastball makes it difficult for him to command. In addition to command issues, Daly is undersized for a starter, raising durability questions. He threw exclusively out of the pen in Short-season Auburn, and Toronto will decide in 2009 whether or not he’ll log time in a rotation or start now with his likely role as power arm in the pen.
Notes: Carreno comes with an upper-80s/low-90s fastball with plus-boring action. His best secondary offering is a fringe-plus changeup that he throws with plus-arm action and average depth. He also throws an inconsistent, sweeping slider that saucers when he doesn’t stay on top of it. Carreno still runs into command issues and struggles at times to repeat his delivery. He needs to find more consistency to remain a starter and may fit better in the pen where he can simplify his motion and concentrate on pounding the zone to produce groundballs.
Notes: Eiland is a burner with game-changing speeds on both sides of the field. At the plate, he is sound mechanically but inconsistent in his weight transfer. As a result, he doesn’t realize as much power as his size and clean swing should produce. His arm is fringy for center, but his foot speed and tracking should motivate Toronto to keep him there as long as he shows he can handle it.
Notes: Defensively, Tolisano is less than ideal around the bag, making it a reach to see him as a second-baseman at the Major League level. He’s athletic enough to hold down a corner outfield spot and may have the arm for right. His bat could play there, as his compact swing generates solid natural backspin and loft. His approach is merely average, and he’ll benefit from identifying pitches to drive with more frequency.
20. Curtis Thigpen | Stats | Depot Grade: C 5-11 / 190 | Age - 25 | C | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2004 (R2) | University of Texas Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG C | Projection: UTL
Notes: With Arencibia likely knocking on the door in 2010, Thigpen’s window as a starting catcher in Toronto is almost closed. His versatility should still provide some value, however, helping him potentially to earn a utility spot with the Big Club. Thigpen is capable but lackluster behind the plate, and is capable of holding down a corner outfield spot, second base or third base as a non-regular. Offensively, he still struggles with identifying breaking stuff, limiting his ability to square-up consistently.
10 More Prospects to Watch
Scott Gracey Ryan Patterson Eric Thames Yohermyn Chavez Moises Sierra Tyler Pastornicky Rob Sobolewski Markus Brisker Kenny Wilson Kyle Ginley
#2 J.P. Arencibia
Organizational Leaders: Hitting – Travis Snider Power – Travis Snider Defense – Justin Jackson RHSP – Matt Daly LHSP – Brett Cecil Future RP – Danny Farquhar
