In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 4 looks at the Orioles third basemen.
Baltimore still believes in Billy Rowell (above) and his plus-raw power.
The 2008 Orioles benefited greatly from the offensive revival of third baseman Melvin Mora. The 36-year old Mora confounded expectations, turning in one of the most productive offensive seasons of any Orioles player. Not to be outdone, Aubrey Huff turned in an impressive campaign of his own (almost exclusively from the DH spot), leading the team in homeruns, total bases, slugging and hits. Both are signed through next season and could be potential trade chips this off-season or solid veterans in the 2009 lineup. The minor league affiliates hold some interesting options for the future, headlined by 2006 first-round draft pick Billy Rowell (HiA Frederick). One level behind Rowell, Tyler Henson (LoA Delmarva) continues to make slow but steady progress. AAA Norfolk saw two ML hopefuls struggle through disappointing seasons. One of them, Mike Costanzo, has already been dropped from the 40-man. The other, Scott Moore, remains a candidate for the opening day roster for now. As to why Moore was selected over Costanzo, it’s possible Baltimore saw added value in Moore’s ability to play multiple infield and outfield positions.
Melvin Mora (Baltimore, 40-man) 5-11 / 200 | B/T - R/R | Born 02/02/72
Mora brings a solid approach at the plate and does most everything well and nothing spectacularly. His greatest attribute is the plate coverage he gets on his swing, which allows him to use the whole park when he’s seeing the ball well. His strike zone command and pitch-ID are adequate, and he has homerun pop in his bat when he squares-up. He’s generally on a short path to the ball, and when he’s at his best he drives the ball from foul line to foul line. As with any aging hitter, bat speed will likely determine whether or not he remains an able bat moving forward. Last year saw an uptick in performance, but a few interesting changes in his batting profile. He took 6% fewer pitches per plate appearance than his career line along with a 15% increase in swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. This may indicate a more aggressive approach to compensate for lost bat speed. Our model is a bit conservative and predicts a line of 271/341/429.
Just like his offensive game, Mora is solid but unspectacular at third base. Among starting American League 3B, he had the worst zone rating, but was only 8 runs worse than average. His range is adequate and he still shows the ability to make the play when he has to charge. His arm still plays and his footwork is clean. With inconsistencies at shortstop, Baltimore would benefit from a little more glove-side range out of its third baseman, but it’s hard to blame Mora for another position’s shortcomings. It’s reasonable to think Mora will lose a step or two going forward, though he should certainly be a capable defender for at least one more season. With a full no-trade clause, the decision will ultimately be Mora’s, but it’s expected that Baltimore will gauge other teams’ interest in the soon-to-be 37-year old after such a solid showing in 2008. As mentioned above, he has one year remaining on his current contract.
Aubrey Huff (Baltimore, 40-man)
6-4 / 235 | B/T - L/R | Born - 12/20/76 Like Mora, Huff enjoyed a productive offensive season in 2008. His 2008 season was so impressive that he was elected on the Sporting News’ 2008 All-Star team. In terms of VORP, only Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, and Dustin Pedroia had better seasons at the plate. Huff has easy power to all fields and did an admirable job of consistently squaring-up on the ball. When he’s on, he is quick to the ball and patient at the plate. When he falls out of his game, he can get a little long in his swing and a little pull-happy. Huff’s bat could profile as above-average at 3B and plays at DH, 1B and LF, as well. Baltimore could go many different directions with Huff, including 1B, 3B, LF or DH (though ideally he wouldn't be used as an everyday 3B). He could also be a potential trade chip for an AL contender looking for a DH that could periodically fill in at the corners.
Frankly, Huff does not profile as an everyday third baseman, despite being capable of stepping in from time-to-time. His hands, range and footwork are all below-average at the position, though his arm is adequate. His bat is valuable enough that it’s conceivable Baltimore could give him a shot should Melvin Mora waive his no-trade clause this off-season. Otherwise, DH/1B seems more likely.
Scott Moore (AAA Norfolk, 40-man) 6-2 / 195 | B/T - L/R | Born - 11/17/83
Moore struggled mightily at the plate this past season at AAA Norfolk. Offensively, the former Cub has the potential for above-average power and is capable of driving the ball the opposite way. His largest hurdle is his inability to make consistent contact – an issue that worsened in 2008. At his best, Moore could offer average power production at third base, though his sub-par command of the strike zone would likely relegate him to the bottom third of the order. While he has made strides over the past two seasons with regards to pitch-ID, he still struggles to square-up consistently on offspeed and breaking stuff.
Defensively, Moore has the makings of a valuable utility player, capable of holding down third base, first base and left field, as well as second base and right field in a pinch. He has adequate hands and range at third, and an arm suited for the left side of the infield. Depending on which direction Baltimore heads this off-season, Moore could find himself on the opening day roster or dropped from the 40-man completely. His defensive versatility should provide enough value to Baltimore to give a fair shot at the 24th or 25th spot on the team this Spring, provided significant moves are not made over the next four months.
Billy Rowell (HiA Frederick, Carolina League) 6-5 / 205 | B/T - L/R | Born - 09/10/88
Rowell took on the Carolina League as a 19-year old, holding his own while giving glimpses into the future power Baltimore expects to emerge from his lefty bat. Rowell has a true middle-of-the-order frame, and raw power that could project anywhere from above-average to plus-plus. As with most high school draftees, Rowell has worked on his approach over his first three professional seasons. While his pitch-ID is not yet where he’d like, Rowell has a solid approach at the plate and an adequate understanding of the strike zone to make him a dangerous hitter. As he adds muscle to his 6’5" frame, his quick bat should lead to big homerun totals at some point in the next season or so. He is already capable of hitting the ball out to all fields of any park.
Drafted as a shortstop out of high school and moved to third base in his first professional season, there where grumblings last year that Rowell would ultimately have to shift off of third if he continued to bulk-up as expected. He’s athletic enough that he could likely shift to a corner outfield spot, though his bat certainly projects at first base. This season he held down the hot corner without too much difficulty, and Baltimore will keep running him out there as long as he continues to show improvement. An oblique injury slowed his progress last season and surprisingly caused him to fall off some scouting radars. He should get a chance to turn some heads along with Brandon Snyder at AA Bowie next season. With steady progress he could be in the mix with the big club as early as mid-2010, though early 2011 is more likely.
Tyler Henson (LoA Delmarva, South Atlantic League) 6-1 / 190 | B/T - R/R | Born 12/15/87
Still raw, offensively, Henson appeared to have turned a corner early in the 2008 Hawaii Winter Baseball league before slipping back into his free-swinging ways. Henson profiles best as a gap-to-gap hitter with average power, but he’ll have to drastically improve his approach and his plate discipline in particular, if he’s to succeed at the upper-levels. With a relatively short path to the ball, Henson does a good job of spraying the ball the all fields when he does square-up. He also boasts above-average speed on the bases. Improved strike zone command could place him in the 2-spot in a Major League batting order, as his hand-eye coordination could conceivably facilitate his hitting for average were he swinging at more hittable pitches.
Like Rowell, Henson was shifted off of shortstop early in his professional career and will do his best to stick at third. He has an above-average arm, more than adequate for the left side of the infield. Thus far, his footwork leaves something to be desired, even at third, but he’s a good enough athlete that there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to stay at the hot corner long term. Ultimately, the big question will be whether or not he’ll produce enough offensively to project at third.
