In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 5 looks at the Orioles shortstops.
Baltimore is hoping for some healthy competition between Greg Miclat (above) and Blake Davis.
The single largest hole in the Orioles’s organization is the six-spot. Five different Orioles started 25 or more games at short during the 2008 season, three of which are no longer on the 40-man roster (Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fahey and Luis Hernandez). Juan Castro and Alex Cintron constitute the current universe of capable shortstops on the 40-man. Though both Melvin Mora and Scott Moore could step-in in an emergency, both give up too much on defense to handle the position full time. The minors are all but barren, though 2008 fifth-rounder Greg Miclat gives Baltimore its best shot in years at a homegrown shortstop. Blake Davis is another potentially intriguing option.
Juan Castro (Baltimore, 40-man) 5-11 / 190 | B/T - R/R | Born - 06/20/72
Castro’s calling card has always been his glove, though his range has decreased in recent years. His hands remain well-above average and his arm more than plays from the left side of the infield. He charges the ball adequately, and his footwork around the bag is effective on both the front- and back-end of the double play. Injured for a portion of last season, his range was so affected that it was expressed in his Revised Zone Rating (RZR) even though he was among the leaders in fielding percentage (aka good hands). He played SS in 53 games and recorded five fewer outs than would be expected from an average fielder. If extrapolated over the course of an entire season, that would be a result of one fewer wins than average. This is similar to Mora’s defensive worth last year at third base. At 36, he’s likely to lose another step next year.
Offensively, Castro is a non-factor. He doesn’t square-up consistently and when he does there’s little power. His pitch-ID is serviceable, but his strikezone command is generally poor. While his defense and versatility should make him a valuable utility player, Baltimore would be better off looking for a similar skill set with a little more bat. Castro is an adequate contingency plan, but he isn’t an everyday player and his days as a valuable reserve are decreasing as he ages. With so little information, it is quite difficult to project accurately what he is likely to accomplish next year. It would be fairly safe to assume that he will not break to 600 OPS threshold. If he is the starter, he will most likely have the worst offensive performance of any starter in the Major Leagues.
Alex Cintron (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-1 / 205 | B/T - B/R | Born 12/17/78
Already discussed in Part 2 of our series, Cintron will be a free agent at the start of this off-season and is best suited for utility work than starting. His arm is adequate but not ideal for shortstop, particularly when he has to go to the hole. His range is below-average at shortstop, though he ranges up-the-middle a little better from shortstop than he does from second base. His footwork around the bag is solid but unspectacular.
Cintron’s best offensive tool is his hands. He excels at putting the bat on the ball and is one of the more difficult strikeouts on the team. His poor plate discipline, however, combined with his hands tends to lead to a lot of bad balls being put into play. Further, he struggles to square-up consistently, partially due to his tendencies to hit balls outside of the strike zone. When he does square-up, there is a little bit of pop in his bat. He does so with enough irregularity that for all intents and purposes he rates out as below-average in power. While neither his bat nor his defense is strong enough to play as an everyday guy, Cintron is useful as a utility player that can play all infield positions and even left field, in a pinch.
Scott Moore (AAA Norfolk, 40-man) 6-2 / 195 | B/T - L/R | Born 11/17/83
As discussed in Part 4 of our Series, Moore struggled mightily at the plate this past season at AAA Norfolk. His MLE was 221/291/357. Offensively, the former Cub and Tiger has the potential for above-average power and is capable of driving the ball the opposite way. His largest hurdle is his inability to make consistent contact – an issue that worsened in 2008. At his best, Moore could offer average power production at third base, though his sub-par command of the strike zone would likely relegate him to the bottom third of the order. While he has made strides over the past two seasons with regards to pitch-ID, he still struggles to square-up consistently on off-speed and breaking stuff.
Moore has the makings of a valuable utility player, though shortstop is by far the worst of his infield positions. His arm is above-average and certainly plays at the six-spot. His hands, range and footwork are all below average for short, however. He is a good enough athlete to spend some time here, if needed, His age makes him the most intriguing out of this trio to stick around as a utility guy, but he has to show he can have some success against Major League pitching – his glove just isn’t valuable enough to carry him through poor offensive production.
Greg Miclat (Short-Season Aberdeen, New York-Penn League) 5-9 / 180 | B/T - B/R | Born - 07/23/87
Miclat saw a dip in his offensive performance his junior year due primarily to loss of strength in his shoulder after season ending surgery the year before. He brings an advanced approach to each at bat, utilizing solid pitch-ID and an advanced command of strikezone. He is quick to the ball and excels at hitting the ball where it’s pitched. He has plus-ability to put the bat head to the ball. There isn’t much power in his swing, but Miclat is capable of squaring-up consistently and spraying the ball from pole-to-pole. As he regains power in his shoulder, he should have solid gap-to-gap power. His likely projection is a bottom third of the order bat, though he could pop-up at the top of the order if everything goes right, primarily due to his ability to draw a walk and get on base.
Defensively, Miclat’s success will likely hinge almost completely on his shoulder strength. He has plus-movements at shortstop, including solid range to both sides, the ability to charge and impressive footwork around the bag. His pivots are clean and he can get creative on the front- and back-end of the double play. When healthy, his arm strength is above-average and easily plays at shortstop. While Miclat is far from a sure thing, he’s an interesting package that is already refined. He should move fairly quickly through the system, so long as he stays healthy. His ability to square-up on advanced pitching and the degree to which he develops any sort of power may determine whether he factors as a Major League regular or a solid utility player capable of filling-in anywhere in the infield. Either way it looks like Baltimore got terrific value in this year’s fifth round.
Blake Davis (AA Bowie, Eastern League) 5-11 / 160 | B/T - L/R | Born - 12/22/83
Offensively, Davis is a work-in-progress. He has improved his approach over two Minor League seasons, but can still appear overmatched. He struggles with pitch-ID and struggles to make consistent hard contact. There isn’t much power in his bat, even when he does square-up, though the position doesn’t demand a ton of power production. Davis can get a little too aggressive and needs to focus on hitting better pitches, in general. His ceiling is a gap-to-gap hitter, though he’ll need to continue improving his approach for his bat to play above double-A. Often it is a bad idea to parse month-to-month data, but, in the minors with young players, it sometimes is useful. One aspect of his performance last year that jumps out is his strikeout trend per month. His first two months he struck out once every five at bats and by the final month he had progressively reduced it to once every 19 at bats. There is little wobble on the trendline, so it suggests that this increase in strikeout prevention may correlate to an increase in pitch-ID. Strangely, it had little effect on his isolated power, so it is uncertain what this portends. Tentatively, we submit this may make him an interesting sleeper to breakout next year.
Defensively, Davis does everything you need him to do at shortstop. He has a strong arm and has improved his footwork greatly, both setting up for throws to first and pivoting on the front- and back-end of double-plays. He ranges well to both sides and has solid hands and a good transfer when charging the ball. He isn’t far away from being ready to play the position defensively at the Major League level, though he’d be little more than average at this point. With continued growth defensively and some improvements in his approach, he could get a shot at shortstop as early as 2010.
