In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 6 looks at the Orioles right fielders.
Nick Markakis (above) gives Baltimore a second five-tooler in the outfield.
Together with Adam Jones (CF with link) Nick Markakis gives Baltimore two-thirds of its present outfield as well as its outfield of the future. Fortunately for Baltimore, Markakis is both young and capable, as there is decidedly little true right field depth on the 40-man. Lou Montanez is generally suited for the nine spot, though he lacks the ideal arm strength. Going deeper down the list, Scott Moore would be the likely “emergency” option, though his bat doesn’t yet profile for a corner spot and his arm would be average at best for right. Off the 40-man, Baltimore has one prospect knocking on the ML door and another just starting to climb the organizational ladder. Nolan Reimold (AA Bowie) will likely get a shot at making the big league club this upcoming Spring and Ronnie Welty (Rookie Bloomfield) showed great promise in his first professional season.
Nick Markakis (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-2 / 195 | B/T - L/L | Born - 11/17/83 Markakis does everything well at the plate. He has a compact swing that generates above-average power to all fields and he excels at driving the ball. He squares-up regularly largely due to his plus-plate discipline which forces pitchers to throw him strikes. As impressive as he has been in his short career, there is still room for more power development. He should hit for average and power for the foreseeable future, and has the ceiling of a .300/30 HR bat. Next year, we project him to take another small step forward and produce a line of 309/418/522.
Defensively, Markakis is among the best in baseball out in right field. The star chamber that is the Fielding Bible (includes Bill James, John Dewan, Rob Neyer, among others) voted Nick as the second best defensive right fielder in baseball behind only Franklin Guitierrez. He has a plus-arm with plus-accuracy, making him one of the most difficult outfield arms to run against first-to-third and second-to-home. He takes great routes to the ball and tracks very well. He has the range and speed to fill-in in center field in a pinch, but he has much more value as a plus-defender in right than he would as an average defender in center. Markakis is the type of talent you build a team around, and Baltimore’s top priority this offseason should be to try and lock him up to a long term extension.
Luis Montanez (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-2 / 200 | B/T - R/R | 12/15/81 After winning the Eastern League triple-crown with AA Bowie, Montanez made his first Major League appearance during a late-season call-up to the Orioles. As discussed in our review of center field, his game transferred well to the big leagues as his MLE at Bowie (293/328/499) was similar to his actual line in Baltimore (295/316/446). Over 38 games, Montanez held his own at the plate, showing an adequate approach and occasional pop when he squared-up on the ball. He struggled with pitch-ID, and doesn’t make consistent enough contact to utilize his above-average raw power. He isn’t young (turning 27 this December) and his ceiling probably isn’t much higher than we saw in 2008. Montanez’s swing can get long, and he’ll probably always struggle against good off-speed offerings. He’s a solid fastball hitter with the raw-power to hit mistakes out of any part of the park.
Defensively, Montanez has the tool set to handle any of the three positions, though he profiles best as a corner outfielder. He doesn’t take great routes and his foot speed is merely average, limiting his usefulness at Camden Yards given the park’s spacious right-center gap. His arm is adequate, but he often times struggles to get himself into good position to get rid of the ball quickly and with authority. He would likely have a difficult time protecting against the extra base from right field. Ideally, Montanez profiles as a bat-first 4th outfielder capable of filling-in at all three outfield spots. He’s also athletic enough to play in the infield in a pinch, though it’s worth noting he was moved off of shortstop while in the Cubs system due to defensive struggles.
Scott Moore (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-2 / 195 | B/T - L/R | 11/17/83 In our examination of third base we documented Moore’s offensive struggles past season at AAA Norfolk. Offensively, the former Cub has the potential for above-average power and is capable of driving the ball the opposite way. His largest hurdle is his inability to make consistent contact – an issue that worsened in 2008. At his best, Moore could offer average power production at third base, though his sub-par command of the strike zone would likely relegate him to the bottom third of the order. While he has made strides over the past two seasons with regards to pitch-ID, he still struggles to square-up consistently on offspeed and breaking stuff.
Defensively, Moore isn’t suited for right field as an everyday player, though he could be adequate in a pinch. He is a solid athlete with fringy range and a fringy arm for right, but he could likely hold his own were he asked to step in. His defensive versatility should provide enough value to Baltimore to give a fair shot at the 24th or 25th spot on the team this Spring, provided significant moves are not made over the next four months.
Nolan Reimold (AA Bowie, Eastern League) 6-4 / 207 | B/T - R/R | 10/12/83 After having his progress slowed in 2007 due to injury, Baltimore decided to take a conservative approach with Reimold in ’08, returning him to AA Bowie for a full season. Reimold packs plus-plus-power in his bat and has 35 HR potential. Standing in his way is a swing with some sizeable holes and a sometimes-too-aggressive approach. His 2008 MLE line was 249/313/416, which suggests he could use a year at Norfolk. In the best case, Reimold is able to realize his power potential at the Major League level, even if he never hits for a particularly high average. In the worst case, the holes in his swing are not addressed, and his lack of strikezone command and aggressive approach provide too great a hurdle for him to overcome.
Defensively, Reimold is a mixed-bag. He has above-average arm strength and adequate foot speed for a corner outfield spot. His routes could still be improved upon and there have been grumblings that he does not maintain focus in the outfield, leading to mental mistakes and more generally sloppy play from time-to-time. His arm strength allows him to profile best as a right fielder and that is where he spent his time in Bowie. With Markakis entrenched in right in Baltimore, left field would be the most likely position of entry for Reimold (and he has shifted over to left with the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League). Expected to get a good look in Spring Training, Reimold is a dark horse trade candidate – particularly if Baltimore can package him in order to land a young shortstop. More likely, he starts 2009 in a left field platoon with Luke Scott.
Ronnie Welty (Rookie Bluefield, Appalachian League) 6-2 / 180 | B/T - R/R | 01/19/88 Like most junior college draftees, Welty’s inconsistent competition at Chandler-Gilbert CC (AZ) prevented many scouts from getting a good read on him. The Orioles happily benefited, grabbing a potential single-digit round talent in the 20th round. Offensively, Welty has potential plus-power in his bat, despite his less-than-pure swing mechanics. The obvious comparison is Hunter Pence, due to similarilties in both his size/frame and in his ability to square-up consistently in spite of his swing. After a successful first season at Bluefield, Baltimore will watch with anticipation to see if he struggles against more advanced pitching, or if he can join Pence on that list of professionals ugly swings and pretty production.
Defensively, Welty is an ideal tool set for right field. He has a plus-arm well suited for right, and above-average foot speed and range. He tracks the ball well, though he can look “all arms and legs” when in pursuit. With both Markakis and Reimold in place, Baltimore will take its time with Welty, ideally moving him up one level per season (placing him in LoA Delmarva for 2009). He’s an excellent breakout candidate, and could end up battling Greg Miclat, Bobby Bundy and Oliver Drake for “steal of the ’08 draft” honors, when all is said and done.