In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 7 looks at the Orioles left fielders.
Nolan Reimold (above) hopes to break-through with the big club next Spring.
The current 40-man roster lacks an ideal everyday left fielder, though there are several interesting part-time options that can serve as adequate starters. Luke Scott tops the list, as the most well-rounded left fielder at the Major League level. Luis Montanez is an adequate defender with a good bat, and Aubrey Huff could hold his own if needed, though he likely gives-up too much on defense for his potential plus-bat to overcome. As with right field, the Minor League levels have one prospect knocking on the ML door and another just getting underway. Nolan Reimold (AA Bowie) looks primed to get his shot with the Orioles, and Xavier Avery (Gulf Coast Orioles) has begun his long road towards an all-star ceiling. Both have the talent to eclipse the current options at the ML-level.
Luke Scott (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-0 / 210 | B/T - L/R | 06/25/78 Scott approaches his offensive game with a blue-collar mentality. Preparation is at the heart of his success, as he takes factideous notes on the pitchers he faces after each at bat. Scott can get a little pull-happy in his swing, and is at his best when he keeps his stroke short and to the ball. There is above-average power in his bat, though he’s clearly more effective at tapping into it against right-handed pitching. It was hoped that with consistent opportunities against southpaws that Scott’s performance would even out as his 2007 splits were almost dead even (856 against RH, 358 PA; 850 against LH, 57 PA). In 2008, his line against right handed pitching was 269/346/492 and 215/300/402 against left handed pitching. To put this in perspective, Scott is an average corner outfielder when player against righties. If he could do that full time and he was a free agent, he would be seeing a yearly income of about 12MM. He will never be paid that much though because against lefties he is a marginal AAA hitter. Scott struck out a third more often against lefthanders than against righthanders. His Isolated Power (SLG%-AVG) decreased by 20%. These suggest he is not recognizing trajectory well and that does not bode well for his future performance. It is possible that he has been so protected from lefties that he potentially could learn with more repetition. We should all understand though that these splits use low plate appearance totals, so we may be selling Scott short.
Defensively, Scott is clunky but adequate as an everyday left fielder. His routes are fine, and his arm is average and accurate. In a more challenging atmosphere, he may struggle with range, but he is more than capable of holding down left in Camden Yards next to Adam Jones. Last year, John Dewan (perhaps the most advanced fielding analyst unattached to any Major League front office) ranked him as the third best defensive left fielder in baseball. Rob Neyer, Jack-of-All-Trades at ESPN, concluded the same. Scott definitely gets the most out of his limited athletic ability, which makes one worry that when age causes his skills to decline, his fielding will assume a greater nose dive than most. Ideally, he’d platoon in left or at DH, depending on the other pieces Baltimore has in place come April. While his offensive splits are enough to make him a liability in the lineup against lefties, he is otherwise a solid option in left.
Luis Montanez (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-2 / 200 | B/T - R/R | 12/15/81 After winning the Eastern League triple-crown with AA Bowie, Montanez made his first Major League appearance during a late-season call-up to the Orioles. As discussed in our center field and right field reviews, his game transfered well to the big leagues as his MLE at Bowie (293/328/499) was similar to his actual line in Baltimore (295/316/446). Over 38 games, Montanez held his own at the plate, showing an adequate approach and occasional pop when he squared-up on the ball. He struggled with pitch-ID, and doesn’t make consistent enough contact to utilize his above-average raw power. He isn’t young (turning 27 this December) and his ceiling probably isn’t much higher than we saw in 2008. Montanez’s swing can get long, and he’ll probably always struggle against good off-speed offerings. He’s a solid fastball hitter with the raw-power to hit mistakes out of any part of the park.
Defensively, Montanez has the tool set to handle any of the three positions, though he profiles best as a corner outfielder and specifically in left field. He doesn’t take great routes and his foot speed is merely average, though Camden’s smallish left field helps to minimize these short comings (not to mention the extended area covered by Adam Jones in center field). His arm is average for left, but he often times struggles to get himself into good position to get rid of the ball quickly and with authority. Ideally, Montanez profiles as a bat-first 4th outfielder capable of filling-in at all three outfield spots. He’s also athletic enough to play in the infield in a pinch, though it’s worth noting he was moved off of shortstop while in the Cubs system due to defensive struggles.
Aubrey Huff (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-4 / 235 | B/T - L/R | 12/20/76 As discussed in our review of third base, Huff enjoyed a productive offensive season in 2008. His 2008 season was so impressive that he was elected on the Sporting News’ 2008 All-Star team. In terms of VORP, only Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, and Dustin Pedroia had better seasons at the plate. Huff has easy power to all fields and did an admirable job of consistently squaring-up on the ball. When he’s on, he is quick to the ball and patient at the plate. When he falls out of his game, he can get a little long in his swing and a little pull-happy. Huff’s bat could profile as above-average at 3B and plays at DH, 1B and LF, as well. Baltimore could go many different directions with Huff, including 1B, 3B, LF or DH (though ideally he wouldn't be used as an everyday 3B). He could also be a potential trade chip for an AL contender looking for a DH that could periodically fill in at the corners.
While Huff does not profile as an everyday left fielder, he could potentially hold his own in Camden Yards (though he’d still be below-average). His range and footwork are below-average at the position; his arm is adequate (though not particularly accurate). His bat is valuable enough that it’s conceivable Baltimore could give him a shot should if Scott and Montanez were out of the equation and Reimold was not ready. Otherwise, DH/1B seems more likely.
Nolan Reimold (AA Bowie, Eastern League) 6-4 / 207 | B/T - R/R | 10/12/83 After having his progress slowed in 2007 due to injury, Baltimore decided to take a conservative approach with Reimold in ’08, returning him to AA Bowie for a full season. As discussed in our right field review, Reimold packs plus-power in his bat, highlighted in his HR showcase in this year’s Eastern League playoffs wherein he belted four homeruns in the first two games of the Akron series. Standing in his way is a swing with some sizeable holes and a sometimes-too-aggressive approach. In the best case, Reimold is able to realize his power potential at the Major League level, even if he never hits for a particularly high average. In the worst case, the holes in his swing are not addressed, and his lack of strikezone command and aggressive approach provide too great a hurdle for him to overcome. If everything clicks, Reimold is a legit 35-homerun threat that could fit into the middle-of-the-order (ideally, the 5-spot directly in front of Adam Jones).
Defensively, Reimold is a mixed-bag. He has above-average arm strength and adequate foot speed for a corner outfield spot. His routes could still be improved upon and there have been grumblings that he does not maintain focus in the outfield, leading to mental mistakes and more generally sloppy play from time-to-time. His arm strength allows him to profile best as a right fielder(where he spent his time in Bowie), though left field seems the most likely point of entry with Markakis entrenched in right in Baltimore. Expected to get a good look in Spring Training, Reimold is a dark horse trade candidate – particularly if Baltimore can package him in order to land a young shortstop. More likely, he starts 2009 in a left field platoon with Luke Scott.
Xavier Avery (Rookie Orioles, Gulf Coast League) 5-11 / 180 | B/T - L/L | 01/01/90 Profiled in this year’s Draft Review, Avery is an exciting player whose tool set was among the best in the entire ’08 draft class. Offensively, Avery’s approach is raw and his swing needs a lot of tweaking. There is plus-power in his frame and bat, so it will be interesting to see what sort of hitter Baltimore tries to shape Avery into. Will the organization promote more of a slap-hitter approach to try and maximize his elite speed on the bases, or do the Orioles see the potential for a more refined hitter that will eventually be able to tap into his plus-power and become a legit 25-30 homerun guy? He has above-averge hand-eye coordination and an ability to square-up regularly in spite of his mechanical deficiences. 24 months from now we should have a better idea of what Avery is going to become, and 2010 and 2011 should be circled as potential offensive breakout seasons.
Avery could be a plus-defender in left field. He covers enough ground to be an above-average centerfielder (which is where Baltimore currently has him working), but we question whether his arm ultimately profiles there. He could likely hold his own, but we currently think left field is a better fit. An incredible athlete, he already does a great job with his footwork, tracking and hands, though his routes could use some improvement. Word around the organization is that he is a hard-worker and an eager learner. Avery should be a lot of fun to follow over the next 3-5 seasons.
