Organizational Depth: Part 12 (MiL Starting Pitching)
November 15, 2008
In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 12 looks at five Orioles minor league pitchers we project as starters.
Jake Arrieta (above) and Chris Tillman hope to join Matusz as future anchors of the Orioles’s staff.
Currently the strength of the organization, Baltimore boasts an impressive group of young arms sprinkled across the minor league affiliates. With Brian Matusz already on the 40-man, Chris Tillman (AA Bowie) and Jake Arrieta (HiA Frederick) constitute the top arms on our Minor League list. Both have front-end ceilings and a solid likelihood to reach at least a mid-rotation level of production. Behind Arrieta and Tillman, the most likely rotation arms include two 2008 draftees (Robert Bundy and Oliver Drake) and AA Bowie’s Brad Bergesen. While several of the arms on our Minor League reliever list will remain in their respective rotations for now, we feel these five stand out as the most likely to eventually find their way into the Major League rotation when all is said and done.
Chris Tillman (AA Bowie, Eastern League) 6-5 / 195 | B/T - R/R | Born - 04/15/88 At age 20, Tillman was one of the youngest arms in the talented Eastern League, and more than held his own. He generally sits in the low-90s with his fastball but has room in his frame to add some size and perhaps some velocity. His curveball is a hard downer that sits in the upper-70s. With improved command, it could be a plus-plus offering. His changeup is fringe-average, and he’s made strides to bring the pitch along this past season.
Tillman has potential front-end stuff, but his approach is still a bit raw and his command and pitchability will both need improvement. He would benefit from starting 2009 at AA again and continuing to develop his command and his changeup. At 6-5 / 200 Tillman is a good-sized thrower who plays-up his height and reach to get good downward plane on his fastball and an equally difficult angled approach from his secondary stuff, at times.
Jake Arrieta (HiA Frederick, Carolina League) 6-4 / 225 | B/T - R/R | Born - 03/06/86 Behind Brian Matusz (Short-season Aberdeen) Arrieta is the most refined “high ceiling” arm in the system. The former TCU Horned Frog saw a bump in his stuff last fall in the AFL and another strong step forward in HiA Frederick. Arrieta’s fastball velocity is up to the mid-90s with decent life, though he still struggles to command it efficiently in the zone. His curveball is a big breaker that can be an out pitch both in and out of the zone. While his changeup is still developing, it has the makings of an above-average offering and could be a plus-pitch with improved depth and command.
Like Tillman, Arrieta will need to focus on his command in the zone. He’ll get a shot at AA Bowie next season, and could move quickly if he’s able show improvement in his secondary stuff. With three potential-plus-pitches, Arrieta has a front-end ceiling, though a solid #3 starter seems like the safer projection. AJ Burnett could be a solid comp, as they have similar arsenals and Arrieta should be able to get out hitters on the merit of his stuff – even with average command.
Bobby Bundy (Rookie Orioles, Gulf Coast League) 6-2 / 215 | B/T - R/R | Born - 01/13/90 Bundy spent last Spring rehabbing from a torn ACL (last Winter), smoothing out his delivery and leading his Sperry HS baseball team to its third state championship in four years. Even with reduced velocity on his fastball, Bundy was nearly unhittable in the overmatched Will Rogers’ League. Bundy has been building up his lower-body strength and as a result his velocity has begun to return. When healthy, his fastball is a low- to mid-90s pitch with good armside run. His curveball is a 2-planer with plus-plus potential, sitting in the mid- to upper 70s. He has not needed to use his changeup often, but it is a solid “show me” pitch right now that could be average down the road.
Bundy is a big body that throws on a good downward plane and can already attack hitters with a solid 2-pitch mix. If he can continue to develop his changeup, he has the potential to be a front-end starter, with a solid likelihood at a #3. Though he may be able to handle LoA Delmarva where Baltimore would monitor his first year on a full-season club, he will likely head to Short-season Aberdeen after extended Spring Training.
Oliver Drake (Short-season Aberdeen, NY/Penn League) 6-4 / 210 | B/T - R/R | Born - 01/13/87 Drake was not pursued by many in the 2008 Draft primarily because many teams weren’t aware that midshipmen do not begin their commitment period until their third year. As a draft eligible sophomore, Drake has elected to pursue his career in baseball after being selected by Baltimore in the forty-third-round and offered an over-slot $100,000 bonus. Drake boasts a solid average arsenal with the makings of three plus-pitches. His fastball is a solid-average offering sitting between 88- an 92 miles-per-hour with good late life. His slider is his only current plus-pitch, sitting in the low-80s and possessing solid tilt. He has shown a good feel for his curveball and his changeup, with each showing lots of promise.
Drake should get a shot at LoA Delmarva next year, where he’ll get to face-off against some more advanced competition. He should be an interesting arm to follow and may turn out to be a supreme steal from this draft class.
Brad Bergesen (AA Bowie, Eastern League) 6-2 / 205 | B/T - L/R | Born - 09/25/85 Bergesen has the lowest ceiling of these five starters, but he’s a terrific package of poise and command. His stuff is average across the board, but he has survived, and even thrived at times, by keeping the ball down and hitting his spots. His fastball is an average offering that plays-up a bit due to command and solid sink. He throws a flat 4-seamer that touches 94-mph, but he’s better off relying on his upper-80s/low-90s boring 2-seamer. His slider is a low-80s offering with small, tight, late action. It’s fringe-above-average and works well with his 2-seamer to produce groundballs.
Since Bergesen’s “stuff” isn’t elite, he’ll have to continue to rely on command and pitchability to succeed at AAA and higher. If he maintains his command, he could be a solid piece in the back-end of a good rotation. Baltimore will likely start him off in Norfolk, whose spacious park should play well for the groundballer. He could be one of the first MiL arms given a shot at the rotation should someone stumble or fall due to injury next Summer.
