Brandon Erbe (HiA Frederick, Carolina League)
6-4 / 180 | B/T - R/R | Born - 12/25/87
Erbe took some solid steps forward this year and will likely tackle AA Bowie at age 21 next year. His motion has improved each year, and he has begun to sharpen the command on his fastball – though there is still much work to be done. His fastball sits in the low-90s, though he can hit the mid-90s. There is inconsistent life on this offering, making it a fringe-plus pitch, though he was getting more consistent boring action on his two-seamer. His second best pitch is a hard slider that improved this year and has the makings of another plus-offering.
 
Standing in the way of Erbe and a future spot in a Major League rotation are command and a viable third offering. His changeup has come a long ways, but is still only fringe-average. He’ll have to improve its consistency with this pitch if he wants to keep a spot in the rotation at the higher levels. The second hurdle is command. While he has improved his fastball command, he still leaves the ball up in the zone. When this happens to one of his flatter fastball, it gets hammered. If they shift him to the pen, he could move quickly. For now, Baltimore will continue to work with Erbe to see if they can keep him a starter.

David Hernandez (AA Bowie, Eastern League)
6-3 / 215 | B/T - R/R | Born - 05/13/85
Like Erbe, Hernandez boasts two pitches with plus-potential. The first is a mid-90s fastball that plays-up due to a somewhat deceptive delivery and quick arm action. He switches between a four-seamer and a two-seamer, which comes in 3-4 miles-per-hour slower on average, but has solid armside run. His second potential plus-offering is a hard slurvy curveball that sits in the upper-70s to low-80s. He needs to tighten is command with this offering, though it serves well as a chase pitch already. He’ll need to show a greater ability to throw it for strikes in order to make the next jump.

Again like Erbe, Hernandez’s largest hurdles to reaching the Majors as a starter are command and the development of a viable third offering. His changeup is fringy, and he’ll have to improve upon its consistency and control. More generally, he’ll have to improve upon both his control and his command in the zone. He tends to run his pitch counts high which hinder his ability to consistently go deep into games. For the second straight season he lead the league in strikeouts (2007 – Carolina League; 2008 – Eastern League). He can miss bats and could make an intriguing power arm in the late-innings off the strength of his fastball and curveball, alone. 

Zach Britton (LoA Delmarva, Southern Atlantic League)
6-2 / 172 | B/T - L/L | Born - 12/22/87
Britton took a nice step forward this year and may be working his way back into the future starter conversation. Right now, however, he’s still a work in progress. His primary offering is a low-90s fastball with solid sink – producing lots of groundballs but not yet missing many bats. Part of the reason may be that his secondary offerings are still coming along and hitters are keying in on the fastball (even if they aren’t squaring-up). His slider showed improvement this year, but is still an inconsistent pitch, though it has sharp bite and the makings of an above-average to plus-pitch. His curveball and changeup are fringy, though he gets decent depth on his changeup at times. Ideally he’ll improve upon one of them to give him a true offspeed pitch to affect the hitters’ timing, with the changeup being the most likely pitch.

Right now, Britton looks like a future situational-lefty. He has good velocity with a boring fastball and the makings of a hard slider that together could produce solid results against lefties at the higher levels. He should get a shot at HiA Frederick next year, where the Orioles will watch to see if he can continue to make progress. The true test will likely come in 2010 when he starts to square-off against higher-level competition.

Jason Berken (AA Bowie, Eastern League)
6-0 / 175 | B/T - R/R | Born - 11/27/83
Berken enjoyed a solid season at AA Bowie as part of one of the better staffs in the Eastern League. Though he boasts a low-90s fastball that is above-average at times, his secondary stuff if fairly ordinary right now. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent low-80s slider with decent tilt and late break. It’s a solid average offering that could be molded into an above-average pitch. After that he brings a changeup in the upper-70s to low-80s with little fade but decent depth. He doesn’t command it well and he’ll need to improve upon it if he wants to stay a starter. His curveball is a “show me” pitch that’s too loopy right now to be effective against better hitters.

Keeping with the theme of the piece, Berken has the makings of two-above average pitches but is missing the third offering and command required of a starter at the Major League level. He may repeat 2009 at AA Bowie and continue to work on his secondary stuff, or he could be shifted to the pen at AAA Norfolk to prepare for a future as a 7th-inning arm.

Rick Zagone (Short-season Aberdeen, NY/Penn League)
6-4 / 215 | B/T - L/L | Born - 09/30/86
Baltimore’s 2008 6th-round selection enjoyed a solid first professional season at Aberdeen, dominating lesser competition. The former Missouri Tiger utilizes a deceptive, high-kick delivery that helps his average stuff to play-up. His fastball is an average-offering, sitting in the upper-80s with occasional sink. His slider ranges from the upper-70 to the low-80s, and his changeup is a mid-70s pitch that can drop into the low-70s. Both are fringe-average to average offerings. His slider, in particular, tends to saucer and float-up in the zone when he misses on his release point.

Unlike the four listed before him, Zagone’s stuff is fringy and is likely what will prevent him from starting at the ML-level. His pitchability and deceptive delivery could help him to carve out a role as a situational lefty or a low-leverage inning-eater in the pen. Next year at LoA Delmarva should start to give us a better idea of his likely projection, though as with many refined college arms AA would seem to be the more appropriate testing ground (and likely stumbling block).