Organizational Depth: Part 9 (ML Starting Pitching)
November 13, 2008
In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 9 looks at the Orioles starting pitchers on the 40-man.
Jeremy Guthrie (above) is currently the only Orioles starter with a set spot in the 2009 rotation.
Baltimore’s starting rotation was nothing short of a disaster last season, highlighted by an early season, career-ending injury to Adam Loewen. Daniel Cabrera regressed after some smoke-and-mirror successes in the early goings. Conversely, Rhadames Liz and Garret Olson struggled through much of the season while showing some signs of improvement in September. Most recently, Danys Baez threw his hat into the ring announcing to the club that he’d like to compete for a spot in the rotation, rather than the pen, come February. Baltimore has some intriguing young arms, but they have each stumbled through their early tastes of Major League competition. Those with an eye to the future have reason to be optimistic, however, as the most talented arm on the list may be 2008 first-round selection Brian Matusz. While the lefty will not be in Baltimore’s plans this season, his progress will be watched closely with an eye to a Major League promotion perhaps as early as 2010.
Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-1 / 195 | B/T - R/R | Born 04/08/79
The former Cleveland Indians first-round pick quietly strung together one of the better seasons for a starter in the AL East. Guthrie has three above-average pitches when he’s at his best and does a fine job of working both sides of the plate. When he’s able to keep the ball down, he can be nearly unhittable. His fastball averages 94mph and bores into right handed batter. His mid-70s curveball is a potential 2-plane pitch, breaking about 7 inches diagonally, which is about average. He typically only throws this to left handed batters. His slider has average to below average movement and an average speed of 85mph. This is his second most frequently used pitch and is primarily a change of pace pitch. His changeup is above average. He uses the same release point as his fastball, but throws it about 10mph slower. It has a one-inch run and three inches of depth, on average.
Ideally a solid #3 starter on a playoff-caliber rotation, Guthrie did an admirable job as the staff ace in 2008 and looks to repeat his success as the leader of the 2009 staff. He’s the lone "sure thing" starter on the 40-man as we enter this off season.
Baltimore had hoped to see 2008 as a breakout year for the young lefty. After struggling (see pitch f/x 1 and pitch f/x 2) through the first five months of the season, Olson finally gave the Orioles reason to be hopeful, putting together a solid string of starts to close out the season. His main troubles were the product of getting himself behind in the count and being forced to offer a hittable pitch. A batter’s count often helps the batter guess pitch type and location and Olson’s offerings are not yet refined enough to trick a batter when they know what is most likely coming.
Olson generally works in the upper-80 to low-90s with his fastball. He sprinkles in a slider and a change. His change up is only thrown to right handed batters. Throughout his minor league progression, his ability to spot the fastball on both sides of the plate helped him to play-up the otherwise average offering in addition to setting-up his breaking ball. Even though he has one option left, Olson has nothing left to prove at AAA and will be expected to sink or swim come 2009. His future success will hinge on his ability to regain his plus-command over his fastball. If he can spot his secondary stuff down in the zone, as well, there is still potential for him to reach his mid-rotation ceiling.
Liz’s days as a starter may be limited, as Baltimore becomes less and less patient with the inconsistencies in his motion, command and secondary stuff. Still, with few other options in place, Liz should get every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation for 2009. When he commands all of his offerings, he has legit #1 stuff, boasting a plus-plus fastball, plus-curveball and plus-changeup. Those instances, however, were rare in 2008 as Liz struggled mightily to retain his handle throughout his various starts. In particular, Liz is still inconsistent in his motion and he tends to dip his back shoulder and elevate his fastball.
Liz’s fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s and he’s able to dial it up to the upper-90s with terrific armside run. His curveball is a hard downer that changes the hitters eye-level and his changeup has solid fade and good arm action. If Liz is not able to reign-in his stuff, he has the makings of a good power arm in the pen. Working out of the stretch may have the added benefit of simplifying his motion and allowing him to repeat his delivery more consistently. For now, Baltimore will try to tap into his immense potential as a starter, but time is running out with some talented arms emerging in the minors.
Daniel Cabrera (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-9 / 270 | B/T - R/R | Born - 05/28/81
Cabrera took a step back in 2008, despite solid numbers at the beginning of the season. As discussed in our examination of his mechanics back in the early days of the season (pitch f/x 1 and pitch f/x 2), he simply is not consistent enough in his delivery to give us hope that he’ll be able to put everything together for a season. He remains a capable #5 pitcher that will vacillate between being unhittable and being incapable of throwing the ball over the plate.
Cabrera enjoyed some early success with his 2-seam fastball this year, which he threw with greater frequency. He gets good armside run on the pitch and was able to keep the ball down in the zone, producing ground balls. As hitters keyed into this offering, however, there wasn’t enough consistency in his other pitches to keep his opponents off-balance. It would not be surprising to see Cabrera dangled this off-season. If Baltimore can find a team willing to take a gamble on him, particularly in the National League, he could make for an average trade chip. While his inconsistencies are unlikely to dissipate, he could certainly produce as a back-end starter in the NL – particularly for a team looking for an innings-eater to add a little depth to their rotation.
Troy Patton (AAA Norfolk, 40-man) 6-1 / 185 | B/T - B/L | Born - 09/03/85 After coming to Baltimore last winter in the Tejada trade, Patton slotted in as one of the top pitching pitchers in Baltimore and a likely candidate for the 2008 rotation. A slap-tear of the labrum, however, sidetracked Patton’s 2008 season before it started. Reports from this fall’s instructional league have been positive, as he begins to work his way back for the ’09 season.
One reason to be hopeful for a strong return is the fact that Patton does not rely on fastball velocity, sitting in the upper-80s with his boring 2-seamer and the low-90s with his straighter 4-seamer. Instead, Patton commands his fastballs to the corners while mixing in an impressive assortment of secondary stuff. His slider has a tight, late break and he commands it well in the zone. His changeup has above-average fade and, like the rest of his arsenal, plays up due to his plus-command. At his best, Patton is comfortable throwing any pitch in any count, and does a solid job of moving the ball in-and-out and up-and-down. If healthy, he’ll be a favorite to make the rotation next season and has the makings of an effective back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.
Matt Albers (AAA Norfolk, 40-man) 6-0 / 205 | B/T - L/R | Born - 01/20/83
Albers enjoyed some success in Baltimore’s bullpen this year before succumbing to injury. The Texas native has a big-time fastball, sitting in the mid-90s with good, late running-action. He has the size, stamina and durability to remain a starter, so it makes sense that Baltimore will give him a solid look this upcoming Spring.
Albers’s best pitch is his 2-seam fastball with life in the mid-90s, though he also has the ability to dial up his flatter 4-seamer to the upper-90s. His curveball is a hard breaker with solid average bend that he throws in the low- to mid-80s. He continues to make progress with his changeup, and has started to better command each of his offerings in the zone. Like Patton, Albers has mid-rotation upside, though he’s capable of pitching out of the back-end of a rotation right now. Baltimore will hope to see him healthy and able in February, where he’ll duke it out with the rest of the hopeful 2009 starters.
Hayden Penn (AAA Norfolk, 40-man) 6-3 / 200 | B/T - R/R | Born - 10/13/84
Despite seemingly floating around at AAA forever, the former fifth-rounder is still just 24 and has the pure stuff to pitch at the Major League level. While his stuff hasn’t fully returned after surgery, he still has three potential above-average offerings, and the stamina to pitch out of the back-end of a ML rotation. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he can dial it up to the mid-90s both early and late in games with decent life. Penn’s changeup comes out of a good arm slot with adequate depth and good arm action and his curveball can be an out pitch both in and out of the zone.
The biggest question mark remains Penn’s command and control. He still isn’t spotting his fastball as well as he should in the zone, and he needs to be more aggressive with his curveball. A talented arm, Penn could still reach his potential as a mid-rotation starter. He’ll get a good look in the Spring, as he’s out of options.
Brian Matusz (Short-Season Aberdeen, 40-man) 6-5 / 200 | B/T - L/L | Born - 02/11/87
Matusz was the most polished arm in the 2008 draft and has the potential to push his way to the ML-roster within two-years of being drafted (as did David Price, LHP, TAM). He boasts a four-pitch mix with three potential plus-pitches – his curveball, changeup and a cutter with slider-like movement. His fastball could be an above-average pitch if he’s able to add some velocity.
While there is currently a lot of buzz and excitement surrounding Matusz, there is little reason to rush him. The prudent approach would be to give him a handful of starts at HiA Frederick before shifting him to AA Bowie for the bulk of the season. The lefty is compared to Cole Hamels, for their similar arsenals and their similar tendency to pitch off of their secondary stuff. Matusz has a front-end ceiling and his polish makes him a decent bet to produce at a mid-rotation level at least.
