Organizational Depth: Part 10 (ML Relief Pitching)
November 13, 2008
In this 12-part series, we will examine the current organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles on a position-by-position basis. For each of the eight positions we’ll take a look at the top 3 players on the 40-man roster, as well as the top 2 minor leaguers that we expect to eventually compete for a spot on the 40-man at that position. Our examination of the pitchers will include a look at the top 8 starting pitchers on the 40-man, the top 8 relief pitchers on the 40-man, the top 5 minor leaguer pitchers we project as starters and the top 5 minor league pitchers we project as relief pitchers. Part 10 looks at the Orioles relief pitchers on the 40-man.
George Sherrill (above) is currently the front-runner for the closer role in 2009.
Baltimore’s bullpen is well situated heading into the 2009 off-season. In addition to some solid options returning from the 2008 squad, the Orioles are fortunate to have some power arms waiting in the wings at AAA Norfolk. The returning cast will include the likes of ’08 closer George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, Dennis Sarfate and power-sinkerballer Kam Mickolio. Further, veteran Jaime Walker will bring his lefty-experience to the staff. Additions this year could include Chris Ray and Jim Hoey, who Baltimore hopes can return to their pre-surgery form, and fastball/slider power-arm Bob McCrory.
George Sherrill (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-0 / 230 | B/T - L/L | Born - 04/19/77
After coming over the Baltimore as part of last Winter’s five-for-one Bedard-to-Seattle deal, Sherrill stepped into the closer role on the Orioles, earning an All-Star selection in the process. Sherrill’s stuff is best suited for lefty-specialist work, though he has proven capable as the ninth-inning guy. His fastball sits in the upper-80s to low-90s, and he pairs it with an above-average wipeout slider. His delivery provides some deception, making the two-pitch mix particularly taxing for left-handed hitters. His lack of a good fade pitch against righties limits his ability to dominate as a closer on a consistent basis, but he has made due thus far. He has also shown a tendency to use his slider as a chase pitch a bit too often, falling behind in the count to hitters willing to wait him out.
Sherrill could be used as a lefty-specialist (his ideal role) or he could be slotted in to close if Baltimore prefers his experience to their other current options. Finally, there remains a solid chance that he could be moved in the off-season if Andy MacPhail can find the right package in return.
Jim Johnson (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-5 / 230 | B/T - R/R | Born - 06/27/83
Johnson was switched to the bullpen this year, with solid results. Still, it may be that expectations should be tempered as his FIP was one run higher than his ERA. Perhaps the greatest trouble is that his strikeout rate was 4.98 per 9 innings. He could stand to improve his first-pitch strike tendencies. Johnson records a first-pitch strike 45% of the time with a near league average 13% hit rate. In order to continue his success he will need to maintain his hit rate while increasing his strike rate. His pitches are still developing, so there is reason to think he will be able to pitch more effectively. Johnson brings a solid 1-2 punch consisting of a low-90s fastball with boring action that he can dial up to the mid-90s, and a legit plus-curveball that he can throw for a strike or bury as a chase pitch. He has also shown solid development in his changeup, though it is still more of a "show me" pitch.
Johnson will likely start again in the middle-relief role, though the Orioles could look to move him to the eighth- and ninth-inning if he continues to progress. In the end, this may be counter-productive, as his ability to go multiple innings might make him most valuable as a seventh- to eighth-inning bridge to the closer.
Chris Ray (Baltimore, 40-man)
6-3 / 225 | B/T - R/R | Born - 01/12/82 After missing the entire 2008 season, former closer Chris Ray hopes to see action again this upcoming Spring. Though he racked up the saves as the Baltimore closer prior to his injury, his stuff may be better suited for set-up work. He sits in the low- to mid-90s with a somewhat flat fastball. Both his slider and his splitter can be plus-offerings, though he struggles to command them. When he leaves the ball up, which is more often than a little bit, he has a propensity to give up the long ball.
Like Sherrill, Ray has shown he has the mentality of a closer, and he is capable of closing out games. He could slot back in at the end of the bullpen again, or Baltimore could use him in lower-leverage situations to see if he can bring his three-pitch mix under control a little more. Like Sherrill, he could be used anywhere from a specialist to a closer, though unlike Sherrill there likely won’t be much interest on the trade front given his close proximity to surgery.
Kam Mickolio (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-9 / 255 | B/T - R/R | Born - 05/10/84
Mickolio is a big-bodied power-sinkerballer that has shown the ability to bring a plus-slider, as well. This two-pitch assault could make for a dominant late-inning reliever if he’s able to improve upon his command. In addition to being oversized and having a limited organized baseball background (there is no high school baseball in Montana), Mickolio throws completely across his body making control a constant issue. When he’s on, he’s quite effective.
After a nice run at AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk last year, Kam had an up-and-down stint with the big club. Baltimore hopes he can build upon last year’s experience and ultimately grow into a dominant set-up man capable of going multiple innings if required. He should open 2009 in the bullpen as a seventh-inning guy and will likely be trusted with more high-leverage situations as soon as he shows some growth on the mound. His low-90s sinker remains one of the better fastballs in the organization.
Walker had a disappointing 2008, after a strong showing in his first season in Baltimore two summers ago. The lefty-specialist comes with an average Major League fastball that sits in the upper-80s to low-90s and a big 2-plane curveball that he generally throws in the upper-70s. Walker’s arsenal is generally effective against lefties, though like Sherrill he lacks an above-average offering to combat righties. His main failing last year was that the ball was leaving the Yard. In years past, he had always managed to keep his HR/ 9 inning rate between 1.0 and 1.5, but saw it double to 2.8 HR / 9 innings. He hadn’t pitched this poorly since 1998 in a six game stint for the Royals which ended with him pitching in AAA ball before being recalled. Hopefully, last year was an anomaly and Walker is able to regain his effectiveness.
Baltimore’s plans for Walker will likely hinge on what they do with the closer role. If someone other than Sherrill ends-up the getting the call in the ninth, one of Walker and Sherrill will be redundant. Given their contracts and the length of time under control, Walker would be the preferable piece to move. However, it’s possible that his value is too low to get an adequate return in trade, which would make the best option rolling the dice and banking on a bounce-back season from Walker – perhaps netting a compensation pick for the 2010 draft.
Dennis Sarfate (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-4 / 225 | B/T - R/R | Born - 04/09/81
Sarfate has a big arm capable of reaching the upper-90s with his fastball. There is enough life and velocity that Sarfate could be an adequate reliever throwing just fastballs were he able to command his pitch with more authority. His secondary stuff is average, showing a solid curveball and a useable changeup, though his bread-and-butter will remain his fastball.
In order for Sarfate to reach his potential, he’ll need to cut down on the walks. While command in the zone may be less of an issue in relief, given his plus-fastball and ability to miss bats, the walks can potentially sink an outing. Sarfate has good relief stuff – he just needs to trust it and command it. He should open 2009 in the pen, though Baltimore brought him back to the rotation for several starts at the end of last year as part of the revolving door that was the Orioles rotation at that point. He could be a solid middle-reliever or eventually a late-inning power arm.
James Hoey (Baltimore, 40-man) 6-6 / 210 | B/T - R/R | Born - 12/30/82
Hoey underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2006, then suffered another setback last Summer, missing the entire season. When healthy, he boast two plus-pitches – a fastball with life that touches the upper-90s and a hard slider that he can throw for a strike or use as a chase pitch. He has the stuff to be a closer, though he has struggled with staying aggressive at the Major League level and has tended to nibble rather than attack hitters. He has velocity to spare, so it won’t be the end of the world if he winds up a mid-90s guy. He’s an electric arm that could be very valuable in the pen, long term.
For now, the Orioles are just hoping to get Hoey healthy and in position to compete for a spot in the pen next Spring. Should worst comes to worst, two options remain on his contract. With the injury last year, a third medical option could be awarded if the Orioles sought one. Ideally, he will stick with the parent club as many relief arms are advancing through the system.
Bob McCrory (Norfolk, International League, 40-man) 6-1 / 205 | B/T - R/R | Born - 05/03/82
McCrory has a fringe plus-plus-fastball sitting in the upper-90s, and a good secondary offering in the form of a hard-sweeping slider. Erratic at times, McCrory has struggled to keep his fastball down in the zone at the ML-level, and does not have the adequate life on his fastball to get sloppy with location (even in the 97-99 mph range). Like Hoey, McCrory could profile as a late-inning power arm in high leverage situations, though he hasn’t been able to put everything together yet. Also, like Hoey, he has two options left.
He’ll get another shot at the Orioles’s bullpen this Spring. While Baltimore is undoubtedly excited by his potential, McCrory will have to start producing next year in order not to be potentially overshadowed by the next wave of power arms moving through the system.
